Compute Futures: The Market for Intelligence

How Orian and ICE are building the NYSE for GPUs — and why this matters for compute-backed securities

Author: Arlo | Date: 2026-08-14 | Tags: futures, hedging, Orian, ICE, compute markets

Why Compute Needs Futures

In the last guide, we covered how NVIDIA and its partners are creating compute-backed securities — securitising the cash flows from AI factories. But there's a missing piece: how do you hedge exposure to those cash flows?

The answer is coming to Wall Street this year: compute futures.

In Moonshots EP 278, Kush Bavaria (CEO of Orian) and the panel revealed that Orian has partnered with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — to launch GPU compute future contracts.

This is the first time Wall Street has a regulated exchange for compute. It's also the first time the NYSE is trading an asset class that isn't a company's earnings or debt — it's compute itself.

Orian and ICE: The NYSE for GPUs

Who is Orian?

Orian was founded by Kush Bavaria and his co-founder Wayne — Kush was a MIT undergraduate when he started building the idea. Within 12 months, Orian raised $15M from founders and angels (no VCs), and by early 2026, Kush's personal liquidity was in the $100M+ range — all from a company that didn't exist 18 months earlier.

The ICE Partnership

In June 2026, Orian announced a partnership with ICE to launch:

OCPI (Orian Compute Price Index) — a base index for GPU compute prices
GPU futures contracts — cash-settled, dollar-denominated, referencing specific GPU types
Physical delivery — long-term vision: transfer actual GPUs between parties

The contracts currently reference:

H100, H200, B200 — NVIDIA's flagship data center GPUs
RTX 5090 — consumer flagship (for inference)

How Compute Futures Work

The Oil Analogy (The Whole Thesis)

Kush's thesis is simple: compute will become a commodity, just like oil.

"People are going to treat compute very similar to oil, natural gas, coal, any sort of other commodity that's existed in the past. And there needs to be the same sort of market structure and market that exists for compute as there was that existed for oil."

Here's how it maps:

Oil: WTI crude (Cushing, OK) → Compute: OCPI index (base reference)
Oil: Venezuelan crude vs Texas crude → Compute: H100 vs H200 vs B200 vs RTX 5090
Oil: Brent crude (global benchmark) → Compute: Basis trading off the base index
Oil: Refineries, pipelines → Compute: Data centers, GPU operators
Oil: Futures (cash-settled) → Compute: Futures (cash-settled)
Oil: Physical delivery contracts → Compute: GPU transfer contracts ("Airbnb for GPUs")

How It Works Today

You put up $1 and Orian puts up $1 (margin)
If compute prices go up, you make money
If compute prices go down, Orian makes money
Settlement is cash (you don't actually take delivery of GPUs unless you choose to)

This is exactly how oil futures work — you're betting on the price of the commodity, not owning the commodity itself.

The Long-Term Vision: Physical Delivery

Kush's ultimate goal is physical delivery:

"Let's say you have 10 extra GPUs and Orian is like 'hey two months from now I need 10 GPUs. We can transfer your GPUs to Orian.'"

This is the "Airbnb for GPUs" vision:

GPU owners list their idle capacity
Companies rent it by the hour or month
Orian facilitates the marketplace and clearing

Why This Matters for Compute-Backed Securities

Hedging the "Stranded Asset" Risk

In the previous guide, we discussed the MBS comparison — securitising 10 years of GPU cash flows, then a new architecture strands the assets.

Compute futures solve this problem:

If you own CBS (compute-backed securities), you can hedge by taking short positions in compute futures
If you're building AI factories, you can lock in future prices by going long on compute futures
If you're a pension fund, you can get exposure to compute without owning physical GPUs

The "Compute Keeps Earning" Argument

Kush pointed out that compute prices have gone UP since April 2026:

6-year-old chips (A100, H100) are now worth more than when they were bought
This is the opposite of the usual depreciation curve
It suggests compute scarcity is real and likely to persist

If compute prices continue to rise, compute-backed securities (which securitise future cash flows) become more valuable — the underlying assets (GPUs) are appreciating, not depreciating.

Why Wall Street Is All In

The panel consensus was clear: compute is the next oil.

Oil is finite (bounded by supply)
Compute is unbounded (as long as we keep building data centers)

Kush's closing line was powerful:

"The Dyson Swarm is going to be hundreds of trillions of dollars. It's the fundamental investment vehicle for everyone's 401k plan, for everybody's retirement."

If you agree with that thesis, you should care about compute futures — they're how you invest in the Dyson Swarm.

Recent Developments

Compute Prices Up Since April

According to Orian's data, compute prices have risen since April 2026:

H100 contracts: up ~15% since April
A100 contracts: up ~20% since April
6-year-old chips now worth more than when bought

This is a reversal of the usual depreciation curve and suggests persistent scarcity.

HBM Memory Futures Coming

The panel also mentioned that HBM memory futures are next — HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the critical component for AI chips, and its prices have been falling for years. Now they're up for the first time in history.

If HBM prices are going up, compute prices will likely follow — more evidence that compute scarcity is real.

The Bull Case for Compute Futures

Wall Street Is All In — ICE is not a small player; they're a multi-billion-dollar exchange operator with a 200+ year history. They wouldn't touch a new asset class unless they saw massive potential.
The Oil Analogy Has Legs — oil has been the world's most important commodity for 150 years. The recurring insight resonates with anyone who understands markets.
Compute Scarcity Is Real — data centre build-out is lagging behind demand, and memory (HBM) is the binding constraint.
The "Airbnb for GPUs" Vision Is Plausible — GPU owners earn revenue from idle capacity; companies get access without building their own data centres; Orian takes a fee for marketplace and clearing.

The Bear Case (And Why It's Overblown)

GPUs Are Getting Cheaper? — critics argue prices will fall as new generations come out. But Kush's data shows the opposite — compute prices are up since April.
The NYSE Might Be Too Slow? — some panelists argued ICE is too slow to react to a new asset class. But ICE's track record says otherwise — early to oil, gas and energy futures, now leading on compute.
Physical Delivery Is Far Off? — the "Airbnb for GPUs" vision is 5-10 years out. For now, it's just a narrative. But narratives drive markets — just look at crypto, which has no physical delivery yet.

How to Trade Compute Futures

For Individual Investors

Right now, you can't. Compute futures are only available to institutional investors and accredited individuals through ICE's platforms. The contracts are not on retail exchanges like Robinhood or Coinbase.

For Institutions

Open an account with ICE (or a broker that offers ICE futures)
Deposit margin (typically 5-10% of contract value)
Go long or short on GPU futures
Settle in cash (no physical delivery required)

Hedging Compute-Backed Securities

If you own CBS (compute-backed securities), you can hedge by:

Going short on compute futures (if you think prices will fall)
Going long on compute futures (if you think prices will rise and want to protect against short squeezes)

The Bottom Line

Compute futures are real, coming to Wall Street, and backed by ICE.

They're the missing piece in the compute-backed securities story:

CBS = securitising future compute cash flows
Compute futures = hedging those cash flows

If you believe compute is the next oil — and that the Dyson Swarm is the 401k asset class of the future — then compute futures are how you get exposure.

The question is not "if" compute futures will exist — the question is "when" they'll become mainstream.